Russia likely to reach plateau in COVID-19 cases by early December, expert says
MOSCOW. KAZINFORM - Russia’s situation with the coronavirus infection is likely to stabilize by early December, Deputy Director of Russia’s Central Research Institute of Epidemiology Alexander Gorelov told TASS.
«Now we are in the growth phase. In epidemiological practice, it lasts 2 or 2.5 incubation periods on average for 14 days. So, the period when we could speak about some stabilization is the first ten days of December, and now this is a growth phase,» Gorelov said.
The expert explained that since the coronavirus outbreak began in Moscow earlier, it will exit it faster than other regions, where the number of cases started growing later. In the long-term prospect, it is possible to reduce the number of new daily cases to zero.
«But we are well aware that today less than 1% of the Earth’s population, including in Russia, were ill. If 30% get infected, the growth rate will slow down and after there is a 60-70% herd immunity threshold we will enter a situation when the virus becomes seasonal and then the situation will be more predictable. I repeat, only vaccination will help us achieve this date faster,» Gorelov said.
On Monday, the anti-coronavirus crisis center reported a record high of 17,347 daily COVID-19 cases in Russia.
In late December 2019, Chinese officials informed the World Health Organization (WHO) about the outbreak of a previously unknown pneumonia in the city of Wuhan, in central China. Since then, cases of the novel coronavirus - named COVID-19 by the WHO - have been reported in every corner of the globe, including Russia.
On March 11, 2020, the WHO declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic. According to the latest statistics, over 43 mln people have been infected worldwide and more than 1.15 mln deaths have been reported.
To date, 1,531,224 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Russia, with 1,146,096 patients having recovered from the disease. Russia’s latest data indicates 26,269 fatalities nationwide. Earlier, the Russian government set up an Internet hotline to keep the public updated on the coronavirus situation.