ADB predicts economic slowdown in developing Asian countries
BAKU. KAZINFORM The coronavirus outbreak is set to trim economic growth in developing Asia and around the world this year, Trend reports on March 6 referring to Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The outbreak could slash global gross domestic product by 0.1 to 0.4 percent, with financial losses forecast to reach between $77 billion and $347 billion, ADB said.
ADB added that the coronavirus outbreak could lead to sharp declines in domestic demand, tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, hurting growth in developing Asia.
Economic growth in China and developing Asia, excluding China, could be trimmed by 0.3 to 1.7 percent and 0.2 to 0.5 percent, respectively, the ADB said in an analysis that outlined best- and worst-case scenarios.
In general, ADB mentioned four hypothetical scenarios, namely, optimistic, moderate, bad and the worst.
In accordance with the optimistic scenario, Chinese outbound tourism will decrease by 50 percent during two months, inbound tourism in China and in the East and Southeast Asian countries, besides China, will fall as much as it fell during an SARS outbreak in 2003. In case of the worsts scenarios, the effects as a result of tourism decline will last more than six months.
In case of moderate scenario, when precautionary measures and restrictions, such as a travel ban, will weaken three months after the outbreak intensified and restrictions were imposed in late January, global losses may reach $156 billion or 0.2 percent of global GDP.
Some $103 billion of these losses or 0.8 percent of the country's GDP would account for China. The rest part of developing Asia will lose about $22 billion or 0.2 percent of GDP.
«As for COVID-19, there is a lot of uncertainty, including its economic consequences,» ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said. «It is necessary to use several scenarios to fully realize potential losses.»
«We hope that this analysis will help governments prepare clear and decisive measures to mitigate the human and economic consequences of this outbreak,» Savada added.